What Hong Kong’s Pandemic Experience Taught Uber About Other Cities

OAKLAND, Calif. — In late February, Uber executives were set to gather in San Francisco to form business plans for the year as the coronavirus steadily spread beyond China. While some executives who were initially invited had been told to stay home, the remaining few huddled at Uber’s headquarters to make plans for the inevitable pandemic.

One of them, Susan Anderson, who managed Uber’s business in Australia, New Zealand and North Asia, delivered bad news: In Hong Kong, Uber trips had declined rapidly as the coronavirus took hold.

“People were tracking what the rate of the virus spread was, and we saw that translate into a drop in trips pretty early on,” Ms. Anderson recalled in an interview. “It became obvious that this was not going to be contained.”

Months later, Uber is facing its greatest crisis: keeping the ride-hailing business afloat when many people are still staying home. Coronavirus totals in the United States, Uber’s highest-revenue market, continue to grow, challenging cities and local businesses that are trying to reopen. And rides, not surprisingly, are only haltingly returning to a semblance of what they were.

Hong Kong, on the other hand, has recovered from the pandemic faster than most other cities where Uber operates. The outbreak has been less severe there than in the United States, and many commuters have gone back to work. Although Uber’s business in Hong Kong is small and doesn’t generate much revenue, the foothold gave the company a preview of how quickly its business would slip away during the pandemic — but also a best-case example of what its recovery elsewhere could look like.

At first, drivers were reluctant to get back behind the wheel. Commuters returned to Uber once restrictions were lifted, while infrequent riders didn’t. Hong Kong also provided a testing ground for new virus safety features, like facial recognition software to detect whether drivers were wearing masks, before they were introduced globally.

The city began lifting restrictions in February, but a second wave of cases in March caused another dip in rides — a sign of the unsteady recovery that Uber is likely to see in the United States.

“If the world looked like Hong Kong, we would be in great shape,” Uber’s chief executive, Dara Khosrowshahi, said during a March call with financial analysts. At the peak of the outbreak in Hong Kong, rides declined 45 percent, Uber said.

In major U.S. cities, Uber rides dropped as much as 80 percent. On average, they had begun to recover about 12 percent last month, the company said. The recovery in Hong Kong has been stronger, with business up 70 percent from its lowest point.

There were signs of recovery in states that began reopening, like Georgia, where business was up 43 percent, and Texas, up 50 percent. But those states are starting to see virus numbers spike, and Uber’s experience in…