Will Pfizer be able to maintain high growth rates after the pandemic?
Biotech company Pfizer Inc. (PFE) currently receives more than half of its revenue from COVID-19 vaccines and a coronavirus drug. This year, the company expects sales to increase by over 20%. How significant can the company’s growth be after the pandemic?
Pfizer’s revenue over the past 12 months was approximately $81.2 billion, but management expects revenue growth of 23% year-on-year to $100 billion.
The major growth factors are sales of the Comirnaty coronavirus vaccine and the Paxlovid coronavirus antiviral pill. expect Paxlovid to earn $22 billion, and Comirnaty — $32 billion. Without these two drugs, the company’s revenue would have increased by only 6% in 2021.
In the revenue structure of 2022, they project Comirnaty and Paxlovid to amount to more than $50 billion, 54% of expected sales for the year. In the coming years, the demand for vaccines and antiviral drugs is likely to remain at a high level. But in a few years, it may decrease.
Thus, Pfizer’s double-digit growth may change to single-digit, probably about 7-8% per year. However, this assumption is because the global pharmaceutical business will grow at the same pace as it is now. For example, in the period from 2009 to 2019, the cumulative annual growth rate of sales amounted to slightly over 0.3% per year. Thus, it is still difficult to predict exactly how the company’s sales will change after the pandemic.
Some experts believe that the COVID-19 vaccine will be in demand for a long time to prevent fresh outbreaks of diseases. This means that Pfizer will continue to sell its vaccine, which is one of the most effective. Should also note that Pfizer’s portfolio includes many other globally in-demand drugs, including over-the-counter ones, which will keep sales at a high level.
